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Friday, December 6, 2013

Next Big Future - 6 new articles

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Date: Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 3:05 PM
Subject: Next Big Future - 6 new articles


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Next Big Future"Next Big Future" - 6 new articles

  1. US and European governments gained $1.6 trillion from low interest rates on the backs of over 50 year old savers and pensions
  2. Merrill Lynch view of a Transforming World from now to 2033
  3. Joe Eck reports Superconductor at 53.6C Almost to the hottest outdoor temperatures ever recorded
  4. 50 meters of new integrated optical waveguides will enable vastly superior tactical gyroscopes and other devices
  5. Mission to grow plants on the moon would have cost $300 million the old way but hitchhiking with the Moon Express Lander in 2015 will cost $2 million and could be a big step for colonization technology
  6. Adjusting China GDP shows China economy is less unbalanced and has 47% GDP from consumption and 42% national savings rate
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  8. Search Next Big Future
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US and European governments gained $1.6 trillion from low interest rates on the backs of over 50 year old savers and pensions

A McKinsey Global Institute report examines the distributional effects of these ultra-low rates. It finds that there have been significant effects on different sectors in the economy in terms of income interest and expense. From 2007 to 2012, governments in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States collectively benefited by $1.6 trillion both through reduced debt-service costs and increased profits remitted from central bank. Younger households that are net borrowers have benefited, while older households with significant interest-bearing assets have lost income.

 

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Merrill Lynch view of a Transforming World from now to 2033

Merrill Lynch Wealth management has a view of dynamic forces that are sweeping across the globe, reshaping our lives and creating a wave of opportunities.

 
Within 20 years, more than half of the world's population rises out of poverty—while the median age in developed countries jumps by five years. The U.S. heads toward energy independence and natural gas prices plummet as advances in technology drive a boom in extraction. Climate scientists studying the rise in sea levels revise their forecasts upward. Technological innovations, such as low-cost 3-D printing, fuel a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing. The U.S. Federal Reserve extends a monetary easing policy that could boost the economy but also risk inflation, as central bankers around the world move markets with unprecedented power.

Economists, researchers, strategists and investment experts throughout Bank of America Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust have identified three major themes underlying what they believe to be today's global transformations. First, amid rapid strides toward energy self-sufficiency, we're seeing a surge in U.S. business and technological innovation that has the potential to revitalize the economy and spark another long-lived bull market. Second, far-reaching shifts in the financial markets are presenting investors with unprecedented opportunities—as well as unanticipated risks. At the same time, a massive rebalancing of the world's economic, political and social power is under way. The rapid rise of a powerful middle class, alongside a global need for essential resources that's set to explode in coming decades, is intensifying the need for a new approach to investing.

"The rebalancing of global growth from the developed to the developing world is a trend we've been discussing for some time," says Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer at U.s. trust. "Demographic changes—some that benefit the world economically, some that increase risk—are creating imbalances that are changing the nature of global growth.

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Joe Eck reports Superconductor at 53.6C Almost to the hottest outdoor temperatures ever recorded

Joe Eck at Superconductors.org reports the observation of superconductivity above 53 Celsius (127F, 326K) in a new copper-oxide ceramic. The chemical formula of this discovery is Tl7Sn2Ba2SiCu10O20+. This is the thirteenth superconductor found to exhibit a Meissner transition above room temperature.

 
There have only been three places on Earth with recorded temperatures above 53.6C.

56.7C Death Valley
55C Kebili, Tunisia
54C Tirat Zvi, Israel
53.6C Sulaibya, Kuwait

The plots show an example of the diamagnetic transitions observed consistently above 53C. The diamagnetic shift of the transitions is on the order of 8 to 10 milli-Gauss. The low signal-to-noise ratio is due to a low volume fraction of superconductive material and a high thermal noise level inherent to these temperatures. The straight lines illustrate the average of the noise component, skewing apart at Tc.


Tl7Sn2Ba2SiCu10O20+ was created by adding additional heavy metal and CuO layers to the "c" axis of the 42 C superconductor discovered in September 2013. These extra layers change the structure from a D212 to an H212 (where H=17).

While the 48C superconductor found in October 2013 was at the maximum unit cell size of 33 Å, it did not have the maximum planar weight ratio (PWR) possible. By replacing two Ba-CuO layers in the "c" axis with two Sn-CuO layers, it was possible to add another Tl-CuO layer and increase the PWR to over 13:1. This is because tin has an ionic radius half that of barium. Furthermore, the 25% hole-doped state of the insulating layers only drops to 22% with 7 thallium atoms and 2 tins, keeping it near optimum.

Despite the low volume fraction of superconductive material, a specific heat change was clearly visible in many of the plots. A change in specific heat is one of the hallmarks of superconductivity. In both plots at page top there is a reduced warming rate between the 10-second interval below Tc versus the 10-second interval during the critical transition. In the top left plot, the temperature warms 0.6C below Tc, but only 0.3C during transition. And in the top right plot, the temperature warms 0.5C in the interval below Tc, but only 0.3C at transition.

Out of ten unambiguous tests, the lowest transition temperature observed was 53.2C and the highest was 54.3C. The average of all ten tests was 53.6C. Below are the two plots with the lowest and highest Tc transitions. Both are around 10 to 12 milli-Gauss in amplitude.

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50 meters of new integrated optical waveguides will enable vastly superior tactical gyroscopes and other devices

DARPA's integrated Photonic Delay (iPhoD) program created a new class of photonic waveguides with losses approaching that of optical fiber. The new waveguides are built onto microchips and include up to 50 meters of coiled material that is used to delay light. Conventional fiber optic coils of the same length would be about the size of a small juice glass. These waveguides also employ modern silicon processing to achieve submicron precision and more efficient manufacturing. The result is a new component that is smaller and more precise than anything before in its class.

"Prior to the start of iPhoD, the best integrated waveguides had a signal loss of about 1 decibel per meter with total lengths of only a few meters," said Josh Conway, DARPA program manager. "Under iPhoD, two research teams created chips with loss around 0.05 decibels per meter. The submillimeter bend diameter, which describes how tightly the waveguide can coil without significant signal loss, allowed the demonstration of a 50-meter optical delay on a single microchip."

"These results are firsts for optical waveguides with performance that is equal or superior to larger, fiber optic-based devices," added Conway. "Chip-scale waveguides, with smaller sizes and new integration possibilities promise advanced, compact military systems such as tactical gyroscopes that significantly outperform state-of-the-art MEMS devices with the same footprint."



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Mission to grow plants on the moon would have cost $300 million the old way but hitchhiking with the Moon Express Lander in 2015 will cost $2 million and could be a big step for colonization technology

Nasa has announced plans to grow plants on the moon by 2015 in a project designed to further humanity's chances of successfully colonising space.

Plant growth will be an important part of space exploration in the future as NASA plans for long-duration missions to the moon. NASA scientists anticipate that astronauts may be able to grow plants on the moon, and the plants could be used to supplement meals.

If successful, the Lunar Plant Growth Habitat team will make history by seeding life from Earth on another celestial body for the first time, paving the way for humans to set up more permanent habitation. "If we send plants and they thrive, then we probably can," says Nasa.

Scientists, contractors and students will work together to create a small 1kg "self-contained habitat" containing seeds and germination material to send to the moon. To get there Nasa plans to 'hitchhike', delivering the payload via the Moon Express lander, a commercial spacecraft enrolled in the Google Lunar X Prize. "After landing in late 2015, water will be added to the seeds in the module and their growth will be monitored for 5-10 days and compared to Earth based controls. Seeds will include Arabidopsis, basil, and turnips," said Nasa.

This will be the first life sciences experiment on another world and an important first step in the utilization of plants for human life support. Follow up experiments will improve the technology in the growth module and allow for more extensive plant experiments.




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Adjusting China GDP shows China economy is less unbalanced and has 47% GDP from consumption and 42% national savings rate

It is increasingly accepted that China's consumption is underestimated, while its investment is overestimated. Two studies, among others, have shed light on the subject. One is on unreported 'grey' income by Professor Wang Xiaolu of the National Economic Research Institute; the other is on consumption underestimation by Professors Zhang Jun of Fudan University and Zhu Tian of the China-Europe Business School. Many have heard of these studies, but most believe that the difference is insignificant.

By combining the results of the two studies, however, my conclusions show very significant changes to China's GDP composition. The corrections would raise household consumption by 11 per cent of GDP, while reducing the shares of investment and government spending by 8 per cent and 3 per cent of GDP, respectively.

Even that only brings consumption from 36 per cent to 47 per cent, still a long way away from desirable. But the implication is profound: it would mean that China need not be so aggressive in slowing investment and that it has less scope than previously believed to stimulate consumption.


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